Earlier this week, Gartner released its latest Hype Cycle report showing the state of various technology trends.
Some of the trends on the rise at various stages of the cycle include augmented reality, Internet TV, Web 2.0 and corporate blogging.
One noticeable point, however: microblogging is about to cross into the trough of disillusionment. Of course, the dominant player in this field is Twitter.
Twitter is social media’s golden child right now. Recently, Twitter has sat at what Gartner calls the “peak of inflated expectations”:
“…a frenzy of publicity typically generates over-enthusiasm and unrealistic expectations”
It’s hard to argue that Twitter hasn’t been over-hyped recently. We’re about to see that change. The next phase is characterised as:
“Technologies enter the “trough of disillusionment” because they fail to meet expectations and quickly become unfashionable. Consequently, the press usually abandons the topic and the technology.”
What does thais mean from a communicator’s perspective? Here are five potential effects of Twitter’s transition into the trough of disillusionment:
- Less breathless media coverage: corporate Twitter use won’t be enough to generate media coverage
- Less snake oil: the field will thin as the opportunistic snake-oil salesmen move on to the next shiny tool
- Maturing use by companies: smart communicators already know that Twitter isn’t a social media strategy unto itself. Twitter will become less of a focus of campaigns and more of an integrated tactic. In more cases we’ll see companies decide that this isn’t the right tactic for them
- Maturing expectations of users: we’ve seen the growth of somewhat unrealistic expectations in terms of response levels and times by organizations. This should lessen, making issues management more… manageable
- Increased focus on measurement: as Twitter moves into the trough, it will become all the more important to measure effectively and for communicators to tie Twitter use to business results and metrics
Make sense to you? What do you think?










Twitter Comment
Interesting RT @unmarketing: RT @davefleet Five Potential Effects Of Twitter’s Shift To The Trough Of Disillusionment [link to post]
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RT @unmarketing: RT @davefleet Five Potential Effects Of Twitter’s Shift To The Trough Of Disillusionment [link to post]
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RT @unmarketing @davefleet 5 Potential Effects Of Twitter Shift To Trough Of Disillusionment [link to post] ->beyond shiny object stage
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“Five Potential Effects Of Twitter’s Shift To The Trough Of Disillusionment” [link to post]
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RT @davefleet Thinking about the implications for PR pros as Twitter enters the trough of disillusionment: [link to post]
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Thinking abt implications for PR pros as Twitter enters the trough of disillusionment: [link to post] (via @forshannonski, @davefleet)
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RT @davefleet Five Potential Effects Of Twitter’s Shift To The Trough Of Disillusionment [link to post]
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Twitter Comment
RT @davefleet Five Potential Effects Of Twitter’s Shift To The Trough Of Disillusionment [link to post] (via @unmarketing)
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RT @davefleet: Thinking about the implications for PR pros as Twitter enters the trough of disillusionment: [link to post]
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Twitter Comment
Good post — RT @davefleet Thinking about the implications for PR pros as Twitter enters the trough of disillusionment: [link to post]
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RT @davefleet: Thinking about the implications for PR pros as Twitter enters the trough of disillusionment: [link to post]
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Twitter Comment
Good points! RT @davefleet: Thinking about the implications for PR pros as Twitter enters the trough of disillusionment: [link to post]
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It’s on everyone’s mind–RT @davefleet The implications for PR pros as Twitter enters the “trough of disillusionment”: [link to post]
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RT @trevoryoung: Good post@davefleet Thinking abt implications 4 PR pros as Twitter enters trough of disillusionment: [link to post]
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RT @jaywalk1 @davefleet: Thinking about the implications for PR pros as Twitter enters the trough of disillusionment: [link to post]
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@jaywalk1 Great share J
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I join just in time for the SLUMP-[link to post]
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RT @adamcohen: Five Communications Implications As Twitter Enters The Trough Of Disillusionment from @davefleet [link to post]
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Reading: Five Communications Implications As Twitter Enters The Trough Of Disillusionment from @davefleet [link to post]
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@adamcohen The Trough of Disillusionment is SO 1995
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@AnneWeiskopf lol – maybe I’ve been in it since then
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RT @davefleet Five Potential Effects Of Twitter’s Shift To The Trough Of Disillusionment | davefleet.com [link to post]
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Tweeples beware! Twitter about to cross into the terrifying “trough of disillusionment” [link to post] (via @adamcohen) HT @Gartner_inc
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So is Twitter about to quickly become unfashionable? And media coverage about to dry up? [link to post] sounds OK by me!
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@eric_andersen yup. agree with all the points and particularly “Increased focus on measurement”
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But before I go. Is this the beginning of the “end”, or a new start for Twitter? [link to post]
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Is this the beginning of the “end”, or a new start for Twitter? [link to post]
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RT @ami: nice article @davefleet – Twitter is social media’s golden child right now. [link to post]
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nice article @davefleet – Twitter is social media’s golden child right now. [link to post]
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RT @christammiller RT @davefleet 5 communications implications as Twitter enters the trough of disillusionment: [link to post]
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5 communications implications as Twitter enters the trough of disillusionment: [link to post] via @addthis & @davefleet
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Five Potential Communications Implications as Twitter Enters the Trough of Disillusionment [link to post] (Dave Fleet).
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Don’t know about you, but I’m looking forward to the Trough of Disillusionment. Wheeee! [link to post]
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FriendFeed Comment
Don’t know about you, but I’m looking forward to the Trough of Disillusionment. Wheeee! [link to post] http://friendfeed.com/e/20559d42-0d2e-4dca-9dd3-727769c1b469
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Can I still get the $500 million? RT @journalistics: Twitter Enters the Trough of Disillusionment [link to post]
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RT @journalistics: 5 Potential Comms Implications as Twitter Enters the Trough of Disillusionment [link to post]. Great post
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RT @davefleet Five Potential Effects Of Twitter’s Shift To The Trough Of Disillusionment [link to post]
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[...] 2 http://davefleet.com/2009/08/five-communications-implications-twitters-enters-trough-disillusionment... [...]
[...] 2 http://davefleet.com/2009/08/five-communications-implications-twitters-enters-trough-disillusionment... [...]
[...] the Gartner Hype Cycle to the point where it will now quickly become unfashionable. In his Five Potential Effects Of Twitter's Shift To The Trough Of Disillusionment Fleet charts the technology's progress and predicts what will happen [...]
Twitter Comment
SOCIAL MEDIA´S GOLDEN CHILD: [link to post] #WCT1011
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